Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017.
PHOTO: Reuters file
PUBLISHED ONNovember 23, 2023 1:29 AM
Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 per cent this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6 per cent.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the UK.
A soft-landing for the US is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
|
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 |
||||||
|
GLOBAL |
US |
CHINA |
EURO AREA |
UK |
INDIA |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.60 per cent |
2.10 per cent |
4.80 per cent |
0.90 per cent |
0.6 per cent |
6.3 per cent |
|
Morgan Stanley |
2.80 per cent |
1.90 per cent |
4.20 per cent |
0.50 per cent |
-0.1 per cent |
6.4 per cent |
|
UBS |
2.60 per cent |
1.10 per cent |
4.40 per cent |
0.60 per cent |
0.6 per cent |
6.2 per cent |
|
Barclays |
2.60 per cent |
1.20 per cent |
4.40 per cent |
0.30 per cent |
0.1 per cent |
6.2 per cent |
|
J.P.Morgan |
2.20 per cent |
1.60 per cent |
4.90 per cent |
0.40 per cent |
0.2 per cent |
5.7 per cent |
|
HSBC |
4.90 per cent |
|||||
|
BofA Global Research |
2.8 per cent |
1.4 per cent |
4.8 per cent |
0.50 per cent |
0.1 per cent |
5.7 per cent |
|
US inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) |
Federal funds target rate (Dec '24) |
||
|
Headline CPI |
Core PCE |
||
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.40 per cent |
2.60 per cent |
5.13 per cent |
|
Morgan Stanley |
2.10 per cent |
2.70 per cent |
4.375 per cent |
|
UBS |
2.70 per cent |
2.75 per cent |
|
|
Wells Fargo |
2.50 per cent |
2.60 per cent |
4.75 per cent-5.00 per cent |
|
Barclays |
2.70 per cent |
5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent |
|
|
J.P.Morgan |
2.50 per cent |
2.50 per cent |
4.50 per cent |
|
BofA Global Research |
2.80 per cent |
4.50 per cent-4.75 per cent |
The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent.
| S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY | |
| Goldman Sachs | 4700 | 4.55 per cent | 1.10 | 150.00 | 7.15 |
| Morgan Stanley | 4500 | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
| UBS | 4600 | 3.60 per cent | 1.15 | 130 | 7.15 |
| Wells Fargo | 4600-4800 | 4.75 per cent-5.25 per cent | 1.08-1.12 | 136-140 | |
| Barclays | 4.25 per cent | 1.09 | 145 | 7.20 | |
| J.P.Morgan | 3.75 per cent | 1.13 | 146 | 7.15 | |
| BofA Global Research | 5000 | 4.25 per cent | 1.15 | 142 | 6.90 |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.10 | 135 |
As of 1301 GMT (9.01pm Singapore time) on Nov 22, 2023:
S&P 500: 4,538.19
US 10-year yield : 4.3712 per cent
EUR/USD : 1.0905
USD/CNY : 7.1498
USD/JPY : 148.74
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